U.S. Elections

Donald Trump won the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. But he lost to Hillary Clinton by almost three million popular votes. Al Gore defeated George W. Bush in the popular vote in 2000, but he lost the election. Samuel J. Tilden won by three percentage points in the popular vote in 1876, but lost to Rutherford B. Hayes. Benjamin Harrison won in 1888 even after losing the popular vote. Andrew Jackson got 11 percent more popular votes than John Quincy Adams in 1824, but he lost the election to Adams. Why does this happen? The answer lies in a institution called the Electoral College.

When the country was being formed, there was a controversy over the method of passing bills and how the legislative branch of the United States would work. One suggestion was to allow each state to have representation based upon each state's population. While this seems fair, smaller states soon realized that they could be overlooked every time through such a system, because large and populous states could easily overcome their voting power. These states proposed an equal representation for all states. Large states obviously believed that it was not quite fair to have equal representation when some states have more people.

Ultimately, it was decided that the legislature of the United States would have two houses. One would be the House of Representatives and the other would be the Senate. Each state's House representation would be determined by its population. The Senate representation would be equal for all states. In order for a bill to pass, it would have to be approved by both houses, thus giving small and large states a place in the process. Originally, Senators were chosen by the states and were meant to be respresentatives of state governments rather than the people. The House members were elected by the people, making them representatives of the people. Thus, states had equal representation at the federal level, and the people had representation based on the most recent census, which is held every ten years.

The framers had different ideas about how to elect the executive (who we now call the President). They did not want the President to be elected by direct popular vote, but they also did not want the Congress (House and Senate) to elect the president. Eventually, though not at first, the solution came in much the same way as the one which decided the representation to Congress. Instead of direct popular vote, electors would be chosen by state legislatures. The electors would then cast votes for President. While this may seem odd, it makes sense based on the legislative model. In some early elections, the people of the states were actually not allowed to vote for electors. Gradually, states began to allow the people of their states to elect electors. South Carolina first allowed its people to vote for electors in 1868! Until that time, the legislature chose their electors.

The national popular vote tally makes no difference in the election of a President. This is because the election is a federal election held on a state level. Each state has the number of electors as it has representatives and Senators. For example, Wyoming has one House representative, and two Senators. Therefore, they have three electors.

In the elections of 2024 and 2028, California will have 52 house seats. These are determined by the U.S. census taken every 10 years. When you add 2 for the Senate representation of California, you get a total of 54 electoral votes.

Note that this means that Wyoming increases their voting power 300 percent, while California's only changes 104 percent. This gives smaller states a percentage advantage in presidential elections. The number of electors a state receives is equal to the number of House representatives and Senators a state has. Is this unfair? Maybe, but this means that the urban states or big cities cannot always dictate policies at the expense of smaller states just because they have more people. Hillary Clinton outpolled Donald Trump in 2016 by almost three million popular votes. But Trump won 85 percent of the nation's counties. He also won 30 of 51 states. (The District of Columbia is treated like a state in U.S. Presidential elections because of the twenty-third Amendment to the U.S. Constitution). So Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. But arguments can be made that Trump also won among a wider diversity of consituencies. It might be akin to a baseball team losing the World Series even though they score more runs. They might have won the series 20-17 on total runs, but lost four games to three. It matters which states a candidate wins, and it is not simply a matter of how many total votes a candidate receives. This forces candidates to win over a wider variety of voters. It means that smaller states like Iowa, Alaska, Vermont, Delaware, and New Hampshire and their concerns on federal policy must be considered by presidential candidates. Otherwise, city dwellers and their ideas might dominate those more rural concerns. It might seem unfair for the candidate who loses the popular vote to win, but it makes sense when considering the framers' concerns. It is also worth noting that in the beginning, the framers never wanted a popular vote or a congressional vote for President!

Currently, the electors are chosen by the respective political parties of the candidates. If a candidate wins more popular votes than any other candidate in that state, he or she will win ALL the electoral votes from that state, with two exceptions. Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the winner of the state and an additional vote for each congressional district that candidate wins. Donald Trump won one electoral vote from Maine in 2016 and Joe Biden won an electoral vote from Nebraska in 2020. If Joe Biden had defeated Trump in California by one popular vote, he would have still won all 55 electors! After the election, the electors usually vote for the candidate they were elected to support. Electors vote seperately for President and Vice-President at their State Capitol in December. Popular votes, then, only determine the election on a state level. The national popular vote total is a moot point and is good only in a statistical sense.

Thus, a U.S. Presidential election is essentially 52 elections. 51 occur on election day, when people vote for electors to represent their state. The other occurs in December, when electors vote in their state capitals. A number of states legally require electors to vote for the candidates they pledged to support. Some do not. Those who do not vote according to their state's election are known as "faithless electors." The election of 2016 featured the highest number of faithless electors in U.S. history, as seven electors strayed from Clinton and Trump to vote for other candidates.

If neither party ticket wins a majority of the electoral vote (currently 270 electoral votes are required to win an election), the election gets thrown into the Congress. The House of Representatives elects the President by voting in state delegations where each state gets one vote, and the Senate elects the Vice-President by a direct vote. Had this happened in the election of 2000, it is likely that Republican George W. Bush would have been President and Democrat Joe Lieberman would have been Vice-President!